Climate change 'could bring an end to globalisation'


Climate change could bring globalisation to an end by 2040, according to a new report from leading national security experts, with nations turning inwards to save resources as new climate-related conflicts arise.

The report produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the US, entitled "The Age of Consequences", predicts that scarcity of resources may "dictate the terms of international relations" for years to come as rich countries could "go through a 30-year process of kicking [the poor] away from the lifeboat".

Assuming that the Earth experiences global warming of 1.3 degrees Celsius and a sea-level rise of nine inches by 2040, the report predicts "a scenario in which people and nations are threatened by massive food and water shortages, devastating natural disasters and deadly disease outbreaks". The report highlights that such a scenario could happen even if the US enters into a global cap-and-trade system for CO2 emissions.

Leon Fuerth, national security adviser to former Vice President Al Gore and a leading author of the CSIS report, said "the kinds of hatred that build up between different groups will be accentuated as [they] attempt to move to more clement locations on the planet".

Internal and cross-border migrations related to climate change are also predicted by the CSIS report, particularly in South Asia, Africa and Europe, as people are forced to move in search of food and water, as well as to flee rising seas and more widespread flood, drought and storm devastation.

John Podesta, former chief of staff to Bill Clinton and president of the American Progress think tank, predicted in the report that "in the Middle East, the politics of water will hold sway, with the Jordan river creating a physical link to the interests of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority".

The Age of Consequences Report

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

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page last updated on 27.11.2007